Vote 2008: Live-Blog

Morning After Thoughts

May 7, 2008 – 9:54 am

Okay, so Obama didn’t pull off an upset in Indiana. But the race ends where it began two weeks ago, making it that much harder for Clinton to argue Obama withers under scrutiny. Some interesting things in the numbers: Obama won the suburbs of Indianapolis. I was there last week and the area seemed to be trending to Clinton, on the experience issue. The areas a bit like Silicon Valley, where Clinton won. But I’m wondering if the “us vs. them” argument Clinton was making on the gas tax holiday issue, and her eschewing of economists, caused a mini-backlash in those affluent (might I say elite?) areas. Also interesting (and possible evidence for a backlash) in the IN results: Obama won, narrowly on the who’s most like me question in IN, and won handily on the who’s more trustworthy question.

It’s almost over. 93.3 percent of delegates are pledged. This am, on The Takeaway, the Clinton campaign’s Howard Wolfson almost seemed to sigh as he acknowledged the steep hill ahead of them. More later — tune into Brian and I (or download the podcast) as we discuss more at 10:00 am.

Indiana still too close to call

May 6, 2008 – 11:14 pm

Hey all, I AM signing off now, since you’ll be hearing from me on the Takeaway tomorrow. Clinton just finished up her speech, where she vowed to go “full-speed ahead to the White House.” Her speech echoed Obama’s in many ways, talking about her roots, assuring that the Democratic party WOULD come together (and that she would support Obama, should he be the nominee), and even noting the race wasn’t about her, it was about the voters. She vowed to “fight on” in Kentucky and West Virginia (did she mention Oregon? — if she did I didn’t hear it). There’s nothing to be lost by declaring victory, but one thing is clear, despite the gas-tax holiday, despite Reverend Wright, the margins in this race tracked the polls from two weeks ago — right after the PA primary. The final polls had Obama doing worse in both states — losing significantly in IN, winning by single digits in NC. But, in contradistinction to pretty much all the other primaries, he beat the late polls. Will he use this to argue he can withstand what the Republicans have to throw on him? Bet on it.

You can stay tuned to WNYC AM, where we’ll be airing the BBC through the night for the latest results.

See you in the morning, and on the airwaves…

Still waiting for Gary — a game-changer?

May 6, 2008 – 10:14 pm

Wow, interesting evening. As of 10:12 pm, Clinton is ahead by about 30,000 votes in IN, and the Gary numbers haven’t come in. I was in Gary last week, and it’s almost entirely African American. Indianapolis went for Obama, but Gary will be more so. There are 84,000 people in Gary, enough to really tighten this thing.

One interesting thing, in Gary, the Obama voters said they’d still vote for Clinton. But in southern Indiana the white working class voters were far less willing to consider Obama.

Yeah, yeah, I know I’m supposed to be finished, but

May 6, 2008 – 9:58 pm

I’m watching CNN, and just finished listening to Obama’s speech. He took on several of the issues that the pundits are going on about right now…tipping his hat to Hillary Clinton, insisting the party WILL come together after this long primary season, and spending a great deal of time emphasizing his own modest roots (answering the charges of elitism). He echoed and emphasized a point he made in Pennsylvania — that it’s not just winning that matters, but how you win. And then he was pretty clear about not being “naive” about expected Republican party tactics, but insisted he can withstand them. All in all the Obama people must be exhaling tonight — a big NC victory, and, if Clinton wins IN, it’ll be by a smaller margin than some late polls suggested. That’s a first — usually she polls worse than she performs at the polls.

A few last thoughts

May 6, 2008 – 8:16 pm

Sorry all — been spending much time with the hosts and no so much on the blog. So remainders — I think the white male vote for Hillary is significant, and counterintuitive. But based on my week in Indiana, the role of racism in this can’t be discounted.

Obama is on now, congratulating Clinton on an Indiana win even before many new outlets have called it.

The margin in Indiana looks to be (if it holds) big enough to give Clinton arguing rights, but far from enough to upend the race. La lucha continua….

As The Curtain Falls On This Live-Blog…

May 6, 2008 – 7:59 pm

Only CBS News has called Indiana for Clinton, others not. Interesting. This has been the case for nearly half an hour.

Coverage continues with a 9:00 NPR Election Special on am820, Andrea doing updates with Terrence on Evening Music.

Join me at 10am to chew it all over on the BL Show.

Good night y’all.

Maybe the Three Idol Judges Should Decide The Presidency

May 6, 2008 – 7:53 pm

There is a judges precedent from 2000…. besides more people vote for American Idol singers than presidential candidates.

Syesha Rocks Simon

May 6, 2008 – 7:50 pm

Cowell loves her performance of Sam Cooke’s Change Is Gonna Come.
Oops, wrong channel.

Correction on Bam NC White Vote

May 6, 2008 – 7:41 pm

Exit polls say he only won whites under 30 in both IN and NC, according to RealClearPolitics.

He needs to move his campaign to the next level: to go beyond the mere idea of unity and propose some compelling specific policies that inspire unity across demographic lines.

White Men Like Hil

May 6, 2008 – 7:35 pm

She wins that group in Indiana 58-41. That’s a lot for the group that’s been hailed as a big swing block. Andrea how important is this do you think?


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